Just when you thought the Reds were ready to turn the corner, they revert back to inconsistent hitting, pitching and spotty bullpen help.
With an upcoming crucial weekend series with the Cubs, Sunday’s game will mark the midway point for the Cincinnati ballclub. Not only the upcoming weekend, but the Reds have a nine-game homestand leading into the All-Star break that could define how the second half of their season plays out. It’s not an easy stretch by any means with three games against the Cubs, four against Milwaukee and two against Cleveland for the Ohio Cup.
All three teams would be in the playoffs if they started today and if that’s where the Reds want to be, they’ll need to rattle off some wins at Great American Ballpark to stay in the race.
Cincinnati currently sits at 36-42, six games out of the first-place Cubs heading into Thursday in the NL Central and five games out of the two Wild Card spots that are occupied in a three-way tie by Milwaukee, Philadelphia and Colorado.
A 1-9 start to the year didn’t do the Reds any favors. It’s been an uphill climb since to try and get back to .500, something they’ve been unable to do. They’ve been within three wins of .500 five times and have gone 1-4 in games to get within two of .500. A recent six-game winning streak finally got them over that hump, but it was immediately followed with a four-game losing streak to get them to where they are at this point. They’ve had their highs, but the lows have outweighed them.
After the offense showed signs of life with 39 runs during their six-game winning streak from June 16-21, they hit a swoon recently with 12 runs in the last four, including back-to-back one-run outputs against the Los Angeles Angels, a team that ranks in the lower half of the league with a team ERA of 4.88.
Team ERA hasn’t been a problem for the Reds, currently boasting the third-best in the majors at 3.65, trailing just the Dodgers (3.22) and Tampa Bay (3.28). Here’s the problem though, of the top 10 teams in team ERA, nine of them are over .500, the one that’s not? Well, the team hitting .234 in a hitter-friendly ballpark called GABP and 26th in the MLB in runs with 336 scored on the year.
While the pitching has been there for the most part, the Reds hitting has been far too inconsistent, disappointing for a team that features Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez and Yasiel Puig. To show how much those three haven’t produced, free agent pickup Derek Dietrich already has a career-high 18 home runs in just 180 at-bats, same with Jesse Winker, hitting 12 on the year, five more than his first two individual seasons with the club.
Votto, at age 35, power numbers are diminishing. Yes, he usually gets better as the season goes along, but the 36 HR, 100 RBI season from 2017 is long gone. He’s currently on pace for 16 HR and around 40 RBI. His doubles numbers are about on par for the rest of his career, but at this stage of his career, Votto can merely be counted on to be a gap-to-gap hitter, not one that will provide the pop. That’s been evident as he was featured at leadoff for a little stretch of the season before being slotted into the 2-hole, a spot that looks like will be his for the rest of the year. The 13-year vet is on a record pace for strikeouts in a season and his walks are down, on pace for the lowest amount since an injury riddled 2014 season.
Suarez is puzzling. The power numbers are there, but his batting average and on-base percentage are down nearly .40 points. He’s in the midst of a rough June, going 13-for-81 with 2 HRs and 5 RBI. Not good for your three or four hitter in the lineup. That’s how his season has been though, starting off the year by hitting .230 in April and then raising his average to .277 following a torrid May in which he hit 7 HRs and drove in 24 runs. He holds the keys to the offense and if the Reds are to make any sort of run, they’ll need more May’s from Suarez, not April’s and June’s.
Puig is getting hot. After coming off a horrid April, he’s raised his average from .192 to .237 in the last two months. He’s 19-for-52 over the past two weeks hitting 6 HRs and driving in 12, both nearly a third of his season totals to date.
Puig is one of several players where things will get tricky for the Reds front office over the next month. Puig is set to become a free agent in the offseason.
Will they become buyers or sellers at the trade deadline that comes at the end of July, or stay put?
The next 10 days very well could help determine that.
Add Scooter Gennett into the mix here very soon and things become even more complicated. Gennett assuming will take over second base duties upon return, creating less playing time for Dietrich, who’s logged 41 games at second. Jose Iglesias has pretty much taken the shortstop job from Jose Peraza and rightfully so, Iglesias solid as another free agent pickup, hitting .297 on the year, the closest he’s been to .300 since an All-Star season with Detroit in 2015. Iglesias has played 70 of the 78 games at short, Peraza just 18 games logged at short. Peraza is under team control until 2023, but hitting a measly .221 on the year.
Peraza may be under team control for a few years, but Gennett and Iglesias are not, set to become free agents come this winter. Dietrich will be arbitration eligible after the season and is line for a hefty raise due to an already career year.
Gennett’s value at the deadline last season was sky high and they didn’t deal him. What will they do with the four previously mentioned and only two spots available for them in the field creates quite the scenario for the Reds.
Dietrich and Peraza are capable of playing in the outfield, but Winker in left and Nick Senzel seems to be the future the Reds are aiming for. If Puig is dealt, it opens up some starts in right, so that could be another option.
Do they continue building for the future or does a July run up the standings keep the pieces in tact?
Again, the next 10 days could help determine that.
Starting and relief pitching the Reds are in a pretty decent spot. Not only with their numbers, but contractually as well, with four starters locked up at least through next season and main bullpen guys like Raisel Iglesias, Amir Garrett and Michael Lorenzen under control through at least 2021.
One name to keep an eye on though will be David Hernandez out of the ‘pen. Hernandez will be a free agent after the season. He’s not having quite the career year of 2018 with Cincinnati, but his 44 strikeouts in 34.2 innings is an attractive option for a team needing to add an extra arm out of the ‘pen.
The Reds have options. Fans can hold out hope they make a run pre and post All-Star break and keep the pieces in tact. But if the inconsistent play continues, expect the Reds to become sellers, continue to build for the future and look to make noise in 2020 and beyond.
