They may be little known outside of the Capitol and their subject matter can be dry at times, but the economists collectively known as the Consensus Forecasting Group nonetheless play a major role: They determine how much state government can spend.

It’s not an easy job, given that this group has to peer 30 months into the future to help the governor and General Assembly enact a budget every even-numbered year. The economists’ crystal ball has proven to be quite accurate, however, with projections usually landing within one or two percent of what the final ledger shows.

The Consensus Forecasting Group met several weeks ago as it prepared for what will be its final meeting late this year that will formally set the size of the upcoming budget. The governor will use that amount for his proposal that he submits to the General Assembly in January, and what ultimately becomes law will be enacted by mid-April and then take effect next July.

Barring something unforeseen, we’re starting to get a clearer picture of what the next state budget will look like. In short, state revenues will grow about two percent during the budget’s first year and a little under that figure in its second. That makes the governor’s and legislature’s work more challenging, because needs in such areas as education are growing much faster.

I will of course keep you posted as other legislators and I ready for the budget process that will formally get underway in a little less than three months. In the meantime, if you have any questions or concerns about this or any other issue affecting the state, please let me know.

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State Rep. John Sims Jr.